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Funds Commentary

Limited Partnership Funds

 
 
November 2017 Commentary

Several themes dominated the month of November as it relates to your investments with the ongoing debate around tax reform in the US and OPEC policy being the most relevant. The concept of tax reform has been analyzed to death, so we won’t spend a great deal of time on it here; however, we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that it’s yet another bullish data point, allowing the narrative of economic strength to continue and push stocks even higher. While we were admittedly too cautious regarding equities entering 2017, our current belief is that in spite of high valuations by historical standards and what appears to be widespread bullishness, markets should continue to grind higher in the absence of an exogenous shock, given the complete lack of worthwhile alternatives to equities and reasonable economic growth around the world. That said, we do not believe this is the appropriate time in the cycle to be making levered or aggressive bets on stocks. We believe that focusing on specific high-quality companies and sectors with tailwinds should yield outperformance.

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October 2017 Commentary

Stocks enjoyed another good month during October, with Canadian markets joining US indices in hitting new highs. While large cap growth stocks led US averages, a falling Canadian dollar, one that has now given up half of its summer advance, plus gains in commodity prices, combined to enable value stocks to also work well in Canada. Each of the two Forge First funds delivered positive net returns for October.

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September 2017 Commentary

Everything appeared to be great for stocks during September as oil climbed 9% and Trump tax talk buoyed small caps and offshore cash rich tech giants. In addition, with inflation remaining quiescent, bank stocks rose on hawkish talk from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Both funds at Forge First also delivered positive net returns for the month.

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August 2017 Commentary

Markets have experienced three phases since the election of Donald Trump. First, there was the hope and the hype of the reflation trade which served to overwhelm any doubts about economics or non­‑US geopolitical issues. However, the accompanying vertical rise in the price of assets that benefit from stimulative fiscal policy in the US was stopped suddenly in its tracks in early March. By then markets realized that the implementation of Trump policy wasn’t going to be a slam dunk. In addition, US growth was faltering. Yields fell back to test cycle lows while equities rotated in favour of disinflation; phase two was in place...

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