As we’ve often remarked, history rhymes but doesn’t repeat and sure enough, once again, markets remain convinced that the ‘song will remain the same’ this cycle. While both stocks and bonds ‘took it on the chin’ during August until the end of month rally, markets view recent evidence of a softening labour market as a precursor to Fed rate cuts during 2024. At this juncture, this scenario remains a high probability. The questions remain around the timing and extent of rate cuts, the cadence and composition of economic growth, and the subsequent impact on corporate profits and valuation of stocks. This note will delve into these questions, but first let’s recap the performance of our funds.
Equities continued to march higher during July as investors became increasingly confident that the forward macro environment would unfold in a manner helpful to stocks. From the Fed shifting its economic outlook to merely a “noticeable slowdown” from a recession to the extrapolation of the recent dovish news on the inflation front affirming big cuts in interest rates next year, the now 4+ month rally in risk assets was maintained. As can be seen from the far-right of the below relative strength graph of growth vs. value, July’s performance exhibited a more equal balance between growth and value indices.
The 493 ‘other’ stocks in the S&P 500 gained +3.7% during the first half of 2023, a gain that if predicted six months ago, would have seemed reasonable given the mix of macro variables at the start of January. Instead, the S&P 500 (SPX) generated a total return of +16.9%, fuelled by the 70% expansion in the P:E multiple accorded those other ‘7 macro cap tech’ stocks, with the first US$2T market company, Apple Inc., accounting for ~20% of the total gain in the index. Pundits attribute much of the recent five-week ramp in equities to investors’ thirst to be invested when the Fed is done hiking rates and the excitement radiating from artificial intelligence (“AI”).
While the story line for equities evolved during May 2023, the bottom line remained the same, as despite deteriorating market breadth, a handful of macro cap tech stocks enabled U.S. indices to close higher on the month. Hence, the S&P 500 (white line, right axis) exited May matching the price levels of mid-March 2022, back when the Fed initiated its series of rate hikes (red line, left axis). Washington’s end of month debt ceiling and spending agreement, plus the growing belief that a ‘not too hot, not too cold Goldilocks ‘economic environment may be unfolding in the U.S. (jobs data last week), undoubtedly played roles in the positive outcome. However, it strikes us that the role of large systematic buy programs should not be underestimated.